Financial Modelling: A Guide to Informing Your Business Decisions

Introduction

Financial modelling is a powerful tool used to help businesses understand and predict the financial consequences of their decisions. Financial models are used to measure the impact of adjustments to their revenue, expenses, and other investments over time. By utilizing financial modelling, businesses can get a better sense of how their decisions will impact their bottom line, as well as how their decisions compare to those of their competitors.

The benefits of employing financial modelling to make decisions stretch far beyond the potential for increased profits. Businesses that utilize financial models to inform their decisions can benefit from a stronger understanding of the financial implications of their decisions and how to better use their resources. Additionally, financial models can provide better visibility into long-term financial implications of decisions, allowing for more strategic decision-making.

Steps for Creating a Financial Model

Financial models are a crucial addition to any business decision-making process. If you’re looking to make better business decisions, one of the best places to start is with a financial model. To help you get started, we’ve compiled a list of steps for creating a financial model:

Set the Target

Before beginning the financial modeling process, it’s important to set the target. What is the action you are hoping to simulate, and what terms and conditions need to be considered? Establishing a target ahead of time will help guide the rest of the process and ensure the outcome is applicable to your business decision.

Gather the Inputs Required

Once you’ve set the target, the next step is to gather all the inputs required to complete the model. This may include such things as the historical financial data of your business, future economic assumptions, and any relevant regulatory or legal conditions. Gathering the required inputs may involve external research or discussions with stakeholders. Be sure to have all of the necessary information before moving onto the next step.

Build the Projected Statements

The next step is to use the gathered inputs to build the projected financial statements. Begin by reviewing the inputs that were collected and assessing the potential impacts they could have on the model. Once that’s done, you can begin building the projected financial statements, accounting for the various assumptions you’ve made. This process usually involves using a strategy that has been worked out ahead of time and predetermined variables.

Finalize the Financial Model

The final step is to finalize the financial model. This involves checking the model for accuracy and verifying that any assumptions that were made are correct. Once you’re satisfied with the model, it’s time to use it to make informed business decisions. It’s important to test out the model in various scenarios and get feedback from stakeholders in order to ensure the best results.

Components of a Financial Model

Financial models are used to project the financial performance of a company. The model comprises of three parts: the projected income statement, cash flow statement, and balance sheet. All three elements are intricately linked, and it's essential to pull accurate assumptions for competent decision-making.

Projected Income Statement

The income statement is used to measure performance in terms of revenue, expenses, profit and loss. It is a tool to measure sales, expenses and overall profitability. Variables of the income statement may include:

• Operating expenses
• Cost of goods sold
• Revenue
• Taxes/Depreciation
• Interest

By analyzing historical data, the income statement can support assumptions of profitability, growth and cash flow forecasts.

Projected Cash Flow Statement

The cash flow statement focuses on changes in the company’s cash position. It can be used to determine the liquidity of an organization or measure their ability to generate cash. Variables of the cash flow statement may include:

• Cash receipts
• Cash spent on operating activities
• Cash spent on investments
• Tax liabilities
• Cash dividends

It can examine a company’s sources of income such as recorded payments they receive and their expenses including wages and taxes.

Projected Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is used to measure a company’s assets, liabilities, and equity. It is an accurate picture of what the company owns, what it owes, and the value of the shareholders’ interest at a given time. Variables of a balance sheet include:

• Inventory
• Fixed assets
• Accounts payable
• Current liabilities
• Debt

The balance sheet can be used to estimate future capital investments and cash flow, which can support long-term decision-making. It can also be used to compare the financial performance of other organizations.

Tips for Working With Financial Models

Financial models can provide invaluable data that can help you make more informed business decisions. Whether you’re launching a new product, introducing a new service, or entering a new market, strategic planning and decision-making have never been easier with the help of financial models. Here are some tips for working with financial models to get the most of out of your business decisions.

Understand the Assumptions

Before you can get accurate data from your financial model, you must understand the assumptions and limitations behind the model. These assumptions may include factors such as expected market growth, customer behavior, and the cost of goods and services. Taking the time to identify these assumptions and understand their implications can help you get the most reliable data possible.

Establish Multiple Scenarios

Once you understand the assumptions underlying your model, you can begin to establish multiple scenarios. This means that you can run the model with different assumptions to see how changes in these variables will affect the outcome. This will enable you to see how your business decisions can be affected by changes in the market or customer behavior. You can also use these multiple scenarios to better analyze the risks and rewards of a particular business decision.

Start With a Simple Model

Although financial models can be extremely powerful, it is important to start with a simple model in order to understand the basics and gradually work your way up to more complex models. You can use a simple model to test assumptions and analyze data before you begin working with more comprehensive financial models. This will help to ensure that you are making the best decisions possible and can enable you to adjust and refine the model as your needs evolve.

Benefits of Financial Models

Financial models leverage data-driven insights to enable businesses to make more informed decisions. In other words, a financial model provides guidance on where to invest capital and how to manage operational expenses. By utilizing financial models, organizations can select strategies that provide the most potential to drive profitability and growth. Here are some of the key benefits of using financial models:

Activate What-If Analysis

Financial models help organizations evaluate different scenarios to understand how they might affect the business. For example, using a financial model helps organizations understand the best way to finance a project or the impact of changing a product's pricing. It also allows organizations to track performance on different metrics to gain insights into financial trends.

Monitor Financial Performance

Financial models are excellent tools for monitoring financial performance and profitability. They enable businesses to understand the implications of various investments and decisions on areas such as net income and overall financial health. A well-crafted financial model is constantly updated and monitored to ensure that the most current information is being used to inform decision-making.

Simplify Decision-Making

Financial models help simplify decision-making by providing a clear roadmap for the future. Organizations can take into account future developments and events to tailor their operations and investments to maximize profitability. Model-based decision-making is often more accurate and effective than traditional decision-making processes because it takes into account multiple variables and data points.

Limitations to Financial Models

Financial models are useful planning tools for businesses as they simplify the forecasting of potential outcomes from certain decisions. However, there are limitations to financial models that should be considered before relying on them for making decisions.

Dependency on assumptions

Financial models are built by adding assumptions and estimates to expected financial results. These assumptions are usually based on past results, industry trends, and market research. In some cases, these assumptions may be flawed and lead to inaccurate predictions. To minimize this risk, it is important to validate the assumptions before relying on the output of the financial model.

Limitations with data

The accuracy of a financial model also depends on the quality of the data used. Oftentimes, the quality of the available data is not sufficient enough to create an accurate model. Additionally, financial models do not consider the complexities of real-world scenarios, such as the impact of external factors, changes in the market, and unforeseen regulatory changes.

Financial models should not be the only tool considered when making business decisions. It is important to recognize the limitations of these models and supplement the analysis with other methods, such as market research and scenario analysis, to ensure that an informed decision is made.

Conclusion

Financial models are powerful and essential tools that businesses of all sizes must utilize. They provide actionable insights that equip business owners and leaders to make more informed and calculated decisions. The monetary costs of planning and modeling may feel high at first, however, the long-term benefits in terms of ROI, risk management, and informed decision-making are ultimately much higher than the costs of utilizing financial models.

Financial models must be updated and recalculated regularly in order to remain accurate and effective. A static model is useless with changing market conditions and new business opportunities. Businesses must therefore regularly review their models and conduct sensitivity analyses to ensure their model is accurately representing the current state.

Financial models are essential for businesses of all sizes, from start-ups and small businesses to global corporations. They provide thoughtful and effective insights that can shape business decisions and guide the planning process. Businesses must continue to remain informed and make the most of their financial models.